Following the Day of 8 billion, we’re exploring some of the population issues that exist around the world. This week our focus is on Japan’s ageing, declining population.

The population of Japan, the world’s third-biggest economy, has been in decline for several years and suffered a record fall of 644,000 in 2020-21, according to government data. It is expected to plummet from its current 125 million to an estimated 88 million in 2065 – a 30% decline in 45 years — population change in Japan bucks the global growth trend.

Not only is Japan’s population in decline, but it is also ageing. As a result, an increasing proportion of Japan’s population is over 65 – they now account for more than 28% of the population. Additionally, the birth rate remains very low. Japanese women have an average of 1.3 children during their lifetime, well below the 2.1 needed to maintain the current population.

In 2021, the number of births totalled 811,604, the lowest since records were first kept in 1899, a faster decline than projected by demographic experts.

The graph below shows Japan’s falling birth rate.

By contrast, the number of centenarians (people over 100) stands at more than 90,500 – compared with only 153 in 1963.

So, what is causing these trends?

Japanese women are increasingly reluctant to marry and have children – deterred by the financial pressures and traditional gender roles that force many to give up work as soon as they become pregnant and shoulder the burden of housework and childcare duties.

Better educational attainment and a rise in the number of women in the workplace mean they marry and have children significantly later than their mothers and grandmothers. Women’s average age of first marriage is 29 years, well beyond the 25 years in the 1980s.

Despite the Japanese government encouraging men to take paternity leave, less than 14% of new fathers took paternity leave in Japan last year, compared with the target of 30% by 2025. This results in the child-rearing responsibility being shouldered by women, and as long as this continues, it is hard to see the fertility rate increasing.

Another factor that deters people from having children in Japan is the high cost of preschool child care and the rising cost of living. As a result, it is becoming too expensive for many families to have children.

Life expectancy in Japan continues to increase. The graph below shows the continued rise in life expectancy in Japan and reflects the improving standard of living and healthcare in Japan.

More than 20 per cent of Japan’s population is over 65 years old, the highest proportion in the world. By 2030, one in every three people will be 65 or older, and one in five people 75-plus years old.

Predictions suggest by 2040 there will be three senior citizens for every person under 15, the opposite of the situation in 1975.

As people live longer and the total population declines due to a low birth rate, Japan will likely experience significant challenges, including

• Increased pressure on health and social care services.
• Financial pressure to provide pensions to a more substantial number of people.
• Increased pressure on public transport as older adults are less likely to drive.
• The need to raise tax rates to cover the costs above.