What are the projections for global temperature change and sea level rise?

What are the projections for global temperature change and sea level rise?

Not everyone will be affected by climate change in the same way. Climate change will have different impacts depending on location, which will mean some people will be more severely impacted than others.

By 2100, global average temperatures are estimated to be between 1.1 and 5.4°C warmer than currently recorded. Sea level is also expected to rise further, between 30cm and 1 meter. Even a small increase in sea level could devastate low-lying island nations such as Kiribati.

There is a range of potential consequences of climate change to be aware of:

• Reduction in biodiversity on land and in the oceans
• Droughts could become more frequent and last longer
• Precipitation could become more frequent and heavier, leading to more flooding
• Melting glaciers could cause water supply issues
• A rise in sea level could lead to more coastal flooding
• Increased destruction caused by stronger and more frequent cyclones
• Pests and associated diseases could become more widespread
• A change in farming practices to try to tackle climate change could lead to issues in the food supply chain

Projections for sea level rise:

Sea-level rise poses the most significant threat, with 23% of the world’s population living within 100km of the coastline. Many major cities, such as New York, Miami, and Cairo, are located in coastal regions, but most of those affected live in small coastal settlements.

A 1-meter sea level rise would devastate coastal regions, with some areas completely submerged.

• The low-lying island nation of the Maldives could be entirely submerged.
• The low-lying nation of Bangladesh could lose 17% of its land, 50% of which is valuable farmland. This would lead to tens of millions of displaced people requiring new homes and jobs.
• Sea defences in rural and urban areas will cost millions to construct. In the USA alone, protecting its major cities would cost US$200 billion.
• Coastal flooding will contaminate farmland and groundwater supplies with salt water, limiting the availability of resources in affected regions.

Many variables must be considered when predicting sea level rise, making it difficult to predict how much it will rise.

If greenhouse gas emissions continue to rise unchecked, it could lead to devasting increases in sea level.

Melting sea ice and ice sheets will impact the rise of sea levels. If Greenland’s ice sheet were to melt, it would raise sea levels by 7 meters, and if Antarctica’s ice sheet melts, it would add a staggering 13 meters to sea levels. Despite these scary figures, these ice sheets will likely take many centuries to melt fully.

Prevailing winds, currents, and sinking land will influence where sea level rise impacts the most. The USA’s Gulf Coast is densely populated and at a higher risk of rising sea levels.