Is the UK’s weather becoming more extreme?

Many argue that the UK’s weather is becoming more extreme. The 2022 State of the Climate report (published each year by the Royal Meteorological Society), which was published in 2023, shared the following points:

• The UK climate continues to change, but UK temperature extremes are changing much faster than average *based on 1960 to 2022 UK daily average maximum and minimum temperature
• 2022 was a record-warm year for the UK, made more likely by climate change
• In 2022, the UK received 6% below average rainfall (1991 – 2020), but heavy rainfall has slightly increased in recent decades.
• Sea level around the UK has risen by 18.5cm since the 1900s, but the rate is increasing, with over 60% of this (11.4cm) occurring over the past 30 years.
• The 2022 leaf-on season was 7 to 16 days longer than average due to extended spring and autumn seasons.
• Projections show that the recent changes observed in the UK climate are set to increase without rapid, globally concerted efforts to reduce emissions.

The UK’s weather is exhibiting increasing extremes, according to the 2022 State of the Climate report. Key observations include record warmth in 2022, with the year being the warmest since 1884 and the first to average above 10°C. Notably, 40°C was recorded for the first time during a heatwave. Rainfall patterns are changing, with 2022 receiving 6% less than the average, yet heavy rainfall events have slightly increased in recent decades. Sea levels around the UK have risen significantly, particularly over the past 30 years. Additionally, changes in sunshine and wind patterns have been noted, with 2022 being notably sunny. Extreme weather events, like the unprecedented heatwave and significant storms, highlight the trend towards more extreme conditions.

Temperature in the UK

Key data included in the report include:

• 2022 was the warmest year in the UK series from 1884, 0.9°C above the 1991–2020 average. It was the first year to record a UK annual mean temperature above 10°C.
• 40°C was recorded in the UK for the first time during a heatwave, which exceeded previous records by a large margin.
  Winter, spring, summer and autumn 2022 were all ranked in the top 10 warmest seasons for the UK in series from 1884 (winter from 1885).
• All the top-10 warmest years for the UK in the series from 1884 have occurred in the 21st century.
• The most recent decade (2013–2022) has been on average 0.3°C warmer than the 1991–2020 average and 1.1°C warmer than 1961–1990. This is the warmest 10-year period in the UK series from 1884 and CET series from 1659.

Precipitation in the UK

• 2022 rainfall was 94% of the 1991–2020 average.
• 2022 included the UK’s eighth wettest February on record. Still, January, March, April, July and August were all notably dry, particularly across England and Wales, and the UK had its driest summer since 1995.
• Five of the ten wettest years for the UK in a series from 1836 have occurred in the 21st century.
• Since 2009, the UK has had its wettest February, April, June, November and December on record in monthly series from 1836 – 5 of 12 months – as well as its two wettest winters.
• The most recent decade (2013–2022) has been, on average, as wet as 1991–2020 (i.e. anomaly 0%) and 8% wetter than 1961–1990 for the UK overall.
• For the most recent decade (2013–2022), UK winters have been 10% wetter than 1991–2020 and 25% wetter than 1961–1990, with much smaller changes for spring, summer and autumn overall.
• There has been a slight increase in heavy rainfall across the UK in recent decades.
• 2022 was one of the least snowy years on record compared to the last 60 years. It was similar to several other recent years (2020, 2019, 2016 and 2014).
• In recent years, widespread and substantial snow events have occurred in 2021, 2018, 2013, 2010 and 2009, but their number and severity have generally declined since the 1960s.

Sunshine in the UK

• 2022 was the seventh sunniest year in the UK series from 1910, with 110% of the 1991–2020 average. England had its equal-sunniest year.
• January 2022 was the sunniest January for England, and March was the sunniest March for Scotland and Northern Ireland in the series.
• The most recent decade (2013–2022) has had for the UK on average 3% more hours of bright sunshine than the 1991–2020 average and 9% more than 1961–1990. 2013–2022 is the sunniest 10-year period in the UK series.
• For the most recent decade (2013–2022), UK winters have been 3% sunnier than they were from 1991–2020 and 14% sunnier than they were from 1961–1990. UK springs have been 6%/16% sunnier.

Wind in the UK

• 2022 was comparable in storminess with other years in recent decades, although, unusually, all five named storms occurred in January and February.
• There have been fewer max gust speeds exceeding 40/50/60 Kt occurrences in the last two decades compared to the 1980s and 1990s.
• The UK annual mean wind speed for 2022 was close to the 1991–2020 average.
• The UK annual mean wind speed from 1969 to 2022 shows a downward trend consistent with that observed globally.

Significant Weather Events

• Storm Eunice on 18 February 2022 was the most severe storm to affect England and Wales since 12 February 2014.
• An unprecedented heatwave from 18 to 19 July 2022 set a new UK all-time temperature record of 40.3°C at Coningsby, Lincolnshire.
• January–August was the driest period across England and Wales since 1976, with drought status declared across parts of England and all of Wales.
• In December 2022, the UK experienced one of the most significant spells of low winter temperatures since December 2010. However, the observations show a clear downward trend in events of this type.