Europe is undergoing some big population changes. While the continent has a rich history of cultural and population growth, recent trends show that Europe’s population is starting to decline in some areas while other parts are facing different challenges. Let’s explore what’s happening with Europe’s population, why it’s changing, and what this means for the future.
What are the population projections for continental Europe?
The total population of countries in Europe is projected to experience significant changes in the coming decades. Many European countries, particularly in Southern and Eastern Europe, are expected to face population declines due to falling birth rates and ageing populations. Countries like Italy, Spain, and Greece are forecast to see reductions in population size. By contrast, Western European nations such as Germany, France, and the UK may maintain or even grow their populations, largely due to immigration. The overall population of Europe appears to have peaked in 2019 and is currently in decline (see the graph below).
Why Is Europe’s Population Changing?
There are a few major reasons why Europe’s population is changing:
- Falling Birth Rates: In many European countries, families are having fewer children. The average number of children born per woman in Europe is now below 2, known as the replacement rate. This means that without enough babies being born, some countries’ populations will shrink. For example, birth rates are particularly low in countries like Italy, Spain, and Germany.
- Ageing Population: Another key factor is that people in Europe live longer thanks to better healthcare and living conditions. This sounds like good news, but it also means that many of the population are made up of older people. By the 2070s, there will be more people over 65 than under 18 across Europe, creating challenges for healthcare and pensions.
- Migration: While some countries see their populations shrink, others are experiencing growth due to migration. Many people are moving to Europe from other parts of the world, looking for better job opportunities and living conditions. Countries like Germany, France, and the UK have seen an increase in population because of migration.
Did you know?
In Hungary, the government offers a unique incentive to boost the birth rate: mothers with four or more children are exempt from paying income tax for the rest of their lives! This bold policy is part of Hungary’s effort to encourage larger families and combat its declining population. Imagine never paying income tax again as a reward for a big family!
Which Countries Are Growing, and Which Are Shrinking?
The graph below shows changes in the populations of countries located in Europe.
View the data on Our World in Data
In 2024, certain countries in Europe are still experiencing population growth, while others are seeing declines:
- Growing Countries: Germany, France, and the United Kingdom have growing populations, partly due to migration. These countries attract workers from other regions, which helps keep their populations stable or growing.
- Shrinking Countries: Countries like Italy, Spain, and Greece are seeing their populations decrease. With fewer babies being born and a high number of elderly people, these countries are facing challenges in maintaining their populations.
What Are the Effects of Population Change?
Population change can majorly affect a country’s economy, environment, and society. Here’s how:
- Economic Impact: Countries with shrinking populations may face problems like a smaller workforce. Fewer people are working and paying taxes, which can make it harder for governments to fund public services like schools, hospitals, and pensions for elderly citizens.
- Healthcare and Social Services: With more elderly people, there is an increased demand for healthcare and pensions. Countries must find ways to support their older populations, which could mean raising taxes or cutting services.
- Urbanisation: Some areas in Europe are becoming more densely populated, especially in cities. This can lead to overcrowded housing, more traffic, and greater pressure on public services like transport and schools.
What’s Being Done to Address Population Change?
European countries are developing different strategies to manage population change. Some encourage families to have more children by offering benefits like paid parental leave after a child has been born and free childcare. Others are looking to increase immigration to fill gaps in the workforce and support economic growth.
At the same time, Europe is preparing for the challenges of an ageing population. Governments are investing in healthcare services for the elderly and are considering raising the retirement age so that people work longer before retirement.
Population change in Europe is a big issue that affects everyone. Some countries are shrinking while others are growing, each facing different challenges. Whether finding ways to support an ageing population or managing the effects of migration, Europe is working hard to adjust to these changes.
